期刊名称：Cardiff Economics Working Papers / Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School
印刷版ISSN：1749-6101
出版年度：2015
期号：13
语种：English
出版社：Cardiff University
摘要：The purpose of the present paper is to investigate perceived inflation gap persistence using actual data of professional forecasts. We derive the unobserved perceived inflation gap persistence and using a state dependent model we estimate the non-linear persistence coefficient of inflation gap. Our main result is that for GDP deflator inflation, the estimates of persistence largely confirm the results obtained indirectly using a linear model. However, when we look at CPI inflation, we find that there is strong evidence for state-dependence and time variation.
