期刊名称：Cardiff Economics Working Papers / Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School
印刷版ISSN：1749-6101
出版年度：2022
期号：2
语种：English
出版社：Cardiff University
摘要：We test the standard New Keynesian (NK) Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model under the condition with and without inattentive features, where inattentiveness is modelled in the form of sticky information and imperfect information data revision. All models are tested with the Indirect Inference method, and our test result based on real-time data suggests that the model with sticky information passes the test and consistently outperforms the baseline NK model with full information and rational expectation, while the model with imperfect information data revision fails to pass the test. Furthermore, we show that none of the models passes the test when Survey of Professional Forecaster data are used for model evaluation. Overall, our findings provide important implications on the modelling of expectation formation in the DSGE framework.
关键词：Forecasting Popular Votes Shares;Electoral Poll;Forecast combination;Hybrid model;Support Vector Machine
