期刊名称：International Journal of Advanced Computer Science and Applications(IJACSA)
印刷版ISSN：2158-107X
电子版ISSN：2156-5570
出版年度：2021
卷号：12
期号：12
DOI：10.14569/IJACSA.2021.01212114
语种：English
出版社：Science and Information Society (SAI)
摘要：The aim of this paper is to avoid any future health crises by analysing COVID-19 data of Morocco using Time Series to get more information about how the pandemic is spreading. For this reason, we used a statistical model called Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) to forecast the new confirmed cases, new deaths, cumulative cases and deaths. Besides predicting the spreading of COVID-19, this study will also help decision makers to better take the right decisions at the right time. Finally, we evaluated the performance of our model by measuring metrics such as Mean Squared Error (MSE). We have applied our SARIMA model for a forward forecasting in a period of 50 days, the MSE reported was 62196.46 for cumulative cases forecasting, and 621.14 for cumulative deaths forecasting.
关键词：COVID-19; machine learning; seasonal autoregres-sive integrated moving average; SARIMA; statistical modeling; time series forecasting
