期刊名称：Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
印刷版ISSN：0027-8424
电子版ISSN：1091-6490
出版年度：2022
卷号：119
期号：28
DOI：10.1073/pnas.2202190119
语种：English
出版社：The National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
摘要：Significance
The future of forests is crucial for the Earth system, yet anticipating and detecting forest change is challenging because trees are long lived, and stand development takes many decades. We suggest that it is not necessary to wait for such extended time periods to see forest changes unfold. Rather, altered dynamics can be anticipated by focusing on the reorganization phase, the short but critical period after disturbance when “the deck is reshuffled,” because early stand development pathways are often locked in for decades to centuries. We present a synthetic framework for studying forest reorganization in a changing world and propose a research agenda to better understand and predict forest change.
Forest ecosystems are strongly impacted by continuing climate change and increasing disturbance activity, but how forest dynamics will respond remains highly uncertain. Here, we argue that a short time window after disturbance (i.e., a discrete event that disrupts prevailing ecosystem structure and composition and releases resources) is pivotal for future forest development. Trees that establish during this reorganization phase can shape forest structure and composition for centuries, providing operational early indications of forest change. While forest change has been fruitfully studied through a lens of resilience, profound ecological changes can be masked by a resilience versus regime shift dichotomy. We present a framework for characterizing the full spectrum of change after disturbance, analyzing forest reorganization along dimensions of forest structure (number, size, and spatial arrangement of trees) and composition (identity and diversity of tree species). We propose four major pathways through which forest cover can persist but reorganize following disturbance: resilience (no change in structure and composition), restructuring (structure changes but composition does not), reassembly (composition changes but structure does not), and replacement (structure and composition both change). Regime shifts occur when vegetation structure and composition are altered so profoundly that the emerging trajectory leads to nonforest. We identify fundamental processes underpinning forest reorganization which, if disrupted, deflect ecosystems away from resilience. To understand and predict forest reorganization, assessing these processes and the traits modulating them is crucial. A new wave of experiments, measurements, and models emphasizing the reorganization phase will further the capacity to anticipate future forest dynamics.
