期刊名称：Journal of Systemics, Cybernetics and Informatics
印刷版ISSN：1690-4532
电子版ISSN：1690-4524
出版年度：2021
卷号：19
期号：5
页码：78-83
语种：English
出版社：International Institute of Informatics and Cybernetics
摘要：Technology forecasting plays an important role in the research and development of products in any company or organization. A well-designed forecast study would help to get the maximum expected gains from future conditions while minimizing expected losses. This article focuses on forecasting of average satellite lifetimes. In this article, using data for the launch dates of satellites, we will analyze their failure (expiration) dates to better understand the curves most suitable for determining trends in satellite lifespans. This article also discusses the prediction of lifetimes of satellites currently in orbit, as well as those to be launched in the future. One goal of this paper is to explain the importance of forecasting and to give a brief explanation of forecasting methods. Another objective is to develop a best fit curve from the available past performance data of satellites by using techniques such as regression analysis, general curve fitting and valuation methods.
