期刊名称：Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
印刷版ISSN：0027-8424
电子版ISSN：1091-6490
出版年度：2022
卷号：119
期号：31
DOI：10.1073/pnas.2204336119
语种：English
出版社：The National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
摘要：Significance
The durability of natural and vaccine-mediated immunity to future SARS-CoV-2 infection and the necessity of booster vaccination are crucial knowledge for pandemic response, yet these factors remain poorly understood. Here, we use comparative evolutionary approaches to estimate the durability of immunity and the likelihood of future infections over time following vaccination by messenger RNA (mRNA) and viral vector COVID-19 vaccines. These findings provide quantitative evidence supporting booster vaccination as a crucial approach toward the curtailment of breakthrough infections and reinfections.
The durability of vaccine-mediated immunity to SARS-CoV-2, the durations to breakthrough infection, and the optimal timings of booster vaccination are crucial knowledge for pandemic response. Here, we applied comparative evolutionary analyses to estimate the durability of immunity and the likelihood of breakthrough infections over time following vaccination by BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech), mRNA-1273 (Moderna), ChAdOx1 (Oxford-AstraZeneca), and Ad26.COV2.S (Johnson & Johnson/Janssen). We evaluated anti-Spike (S) immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibody levels elicited by each vaccine relative to natural infection. We estimated typical trajectories of waning and corresponding infection probabilities, providing the distribution of times to breakthrough infection for each vaccine under endemic conditions. Peak antibody levels elicited by messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines mRNA-1273 and BNT1262b2 exceeded that of natural infection and are expected to typically yield more durable protection against breakthrough infections (median 29.6 mo; 5 to 95% quantiles 10.9 mo to 7.9 y) than natural infection (median 21.5 mo; 5 to 95% quantiles 3.5 mo to 7.1 y). Relative to mRNA-1273 and BNT1262b2, viral vector vaccines ChAdOx1 and Ad26.COV2.S exhibit similar peak anti-S IgG antibody responses to that from natural infection and are projected to yield lower, shorter-term protection against breakthrough infection (median 22.4 mo and 5 to 95% quantiles 4.3 mo to 7.2 y; and median 20.5 mo and 5 to 95% quantiles 2.6 mo to 7.0 y; respectively). These results leverage the tools from evolutionary biology to provide a quantitative basis for otherwise unknown parameters that are fundamental to public health policy decision-making.
