摘要：The purpose of this research is to study the relation between wheat price shocks and speculative movements. VAR model is developed to analyze the data. Impulse-Response functions and Variance Decomposition method are used to analyze the size of relationship among the variables. Wheat prices are effected significantly by speculative movements in the short-run. The relation loses its significance after three months. The effect of speculation on wheat prices can lead to negative reaction from the producers; that will be harmful for an economy as a whole. In order to prevent this, effective use of the government policies is needed; so that, in the long-run, not only economic but also speculative based price structure can be achieved. The disclosures of global wheat yield estimated by the authorities can be a helpful tool in order to control speculative movements and in achieving long-run market equilibrium. This study encompasses a bigger picture and provides an opportunity to have a deeper and broader look into the dynamics of wheat prices. Thus, it can be advantageous for traders as well as for policy makers.
