摘要：Farmers confront worrying climate-related factors, including rising temperature and hydrological extremes menacing wheat production. Wheat farmers must acclimatize to climate change for viable wheat production as it is the most critical staple crop and source of revenue in Pakistan. Therefore, this study uses Ricardian analysis to pinpoint the climate change impact on wheat production through the change in net return from wheat crops due to elevated temperature and unsteady precipitation in the Potohar region of Punjab, Pakistan. To this end, a sample of 160 wheat growers was randomly chosen, and the Ordinary Least Square regression analysis was conducted to test the relative effect of each variable. The results disclosed that the net return from wheat per acre was Rs. 16,928/- and Rs. 11,494/- in Jhelum and Chakwal, respectively. Treatment of fertilizers, pesticides, and irrigation were the essential causative factors to wheat production, ensuing net return. The temperature effect on wheat yield was affirmative up to an optimal level of 21.8oC in Jhelum and 24.1oC in Chakwal and adverse beyond it, while hydrological extremes (uneven precipitation) negatively affected wheat yield, diminishing net-income substantially. Application of drought-resistant seeds and enhanced irrigation systems can increase the net return from wheat crops among many adaptive climate change measures.
关键词：climate change;wheat production;net-return;Ricardian model
