摘要：Health state prediction is an effective way to improve the reliability for sensors. In the process of sensor degradation, it is difficult to obtain more effective monitoring data. And in the classification of health states, how to identify the adjacent state is also a problem. This paper proposed a health state prediction model based on belief rule base (BRB) and membership function (MF), which is called BRB-MF. In the model, BRB can make full use of expert knowledge and poor effective data. In the prediction results of BRB, it may be not completely logical or not entirely appropriate facing adjacent states of sensor. In order to solve the problem, MF is used to continue the analysis of the predicted results of BRB. In the BRB-MF model, the covariance matrix adaptation evolutionary strategies (CMA-ES) optimization algorithm is used to update the model parameters to make up for the uncertainty of expert knowledge. In the end, the brightness sensor of the rail vehicle LED lighting system is taken as a case study. The results show that the BRB-MF model can predict the health state of sensor with a high accuracy and a reasonable state.
关键词：Health state prediction;sensor;BRB;MF;CMA-ES;expert knowledge
