摘要：There is still doubt about how to accurately distinguish the objective and subjective factors that affect traffic congestion. This study aims to re-examine the role of socioeconomic factors and governance policies in the variation of urban traffic congestion from a global perspective at the macro-social development level. The heterogeneous characteristics of the traffic congestion index under the influence of changes in governance policies and variations of social–economic factors are distinguished through a residual trend model. Different time scenarios are addressed in the study to assess the respective contribution of socioeconomic factors and governance policies to variations of traffic congestion, which is helpful for identifying the most destructive factors and the most effective combination of governance policies. Taking Beijing City as the case, the results show that the social-economic factors and governance policies jointly drive congestion fluctuations, but the contribution of governance policies is greater. In addition, governance policies play an important role in alleviating traffic congestion, but unfortunately, an unreasonable combination of governance policies is also the chief culprit for the rise of the traffic congestion index in certain periods. The findings presented here can make us understand macro-mechanisms in response to urban traffic congestion and provide evidence for formulating regional development policies.
