摘要：The use of fossil fuel and artificial nitrogen fertilizer in German agriculture is a wicked problem. The incumbent system allows access to nutrition, but relies on unsustainable fossil fuel, produces greenhouse gas emissions along the whole production chain, and nitrogen pollution. This article uses the Interdisciplinary Transition Innovation, Engineering, and Management (InTIME) method for German agriculture systems with data from FAO and the German Ministry For Food And Agriculture. The purpose of this article is a rigorous analysis of the complex agriculture system and the development of feasible opportunities for sustainable carbon downshifting. Sustainability indicators are biodiversity loss, fossil-fuel use, mineral depletion, energy use, carbon emissions and eutrophication. The results indicate that the technology-based solution of “green hydrogen” as a substitute for fossil hydrogen in the fertilizer production decreases the sustainability of the agriculture system. The most promising results arise from shifting consumption of meat and animal-based products to a more plant based diet, and transitioning to organic agriculture. Net-zero sustainability goals and a reduction in eutrophication are achieved by 75% downshift of animal products and the upscaling of organic agriculture. Strategic scenarios to achieve the results are developed and recommendations for policy implementation to ease the transition are examined.
关键词：transition engineering; InTIME method; energy transition; greenhouse gas emissions; hydrogen; agriculture; fertilizer
