摘要：Climate and land-use change are important factors in the hydrological process. Climatic and anthropic changes have played a crucial role in surface runoff changes. The objective of this research was to apply land-use change and future climate change to predict runoff change in the Pak Phanang River Basin. The Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov model was used to predict the land-use change, while the climate data from 2025 to 2085 under RPC2.6, RPC4.5, and RPC8.5 were generated using the MarkSim model. Additionally, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) combined land-use change and the generated meteorological data to predict the runoff change in the study area. The results showed that the annual runoff in the area would increase in the upcoming year, which would affect the production of field crops in the lowland area. Therefore, a good water drainage system is required for the coming years. Since the runoff would be about 50% reduced in the middle and late 21st century, an agroforestry system is also suggested for water capturing and reducing soil evaporation. Moreover, the runoff change’s overall impact was related to GHG emissions. This finding will be useful for the authorities to determine policies and plans for climate change adaptation in the Malay Peninsula.
关键词：runoff change; climate change; land-use change; hydrological model
