摘要：The crowd in a metro system can cause inconvenience and even safety problems to passengers. The study of crowded propagation in metro systems can identify where and when crowds occur, ensuring travel quality and safety. Based on this, a modified susceptible–infected-susceptible (SIS) crowded propagation model is proposed to estimate the risk probability of crowding (RPC) in the metro network. Each station’s real transport capacity is considered. Infection rate and the recovery rate are proposed considering the traffic difference between stations. Using the Beijing metro network as a case study, the spatial and temporal patterns of crowded propagation are analyzed, and the types of nodes suitable for regulation are further discussed. This proposed model can provide a reference for RPC identification and regulation and promote sustainable development of metro operations.
关键词：metro network; crowded propagation; risk probability of crowding; passenger flow
