标题：Measurement and Prediction of Coupling Coordination Level of Economic Development, Social Stability and Ecological Environment in Qinghai-Thoughts on Sustainable Societal Safety
摘要：Societal safety is the result of the coordinated development of several subsystems; the coupling–coordination relationship among economic development (ED), social stability (SS), and ecological environment (EE) is the premise of realizing sustainable societal safety (SSS). Taking Qinghai Province as an example, this paper quantitatively evaluates the development index of each subsystem by constructing ED-SS-EE evaluation index system, then analyzes the spatio-temporal evolution of ED, SS, and EE coupling coordination levels based on the coupling coordination model, and finally predicts the coupling coordination level of ED, SS, and EE by using the GM(1.1) model. The findings are as follows: (1) The economy is developing rapidly, but the regional development is extremely uneven; ED is driving SS, and SS lags behind ED and slowly improves; EE is improving continuously, and the spatial pattern is relatively stable. (2) The ED, SS, and EE systems have a high degree of coupling, showing a fluctuating upward trend. Coordination level is low, showing a slow upward trend, and the regional differences are obvious. (3) In the future, the coordination level of ED, SS, and EE systems in different regions will be upgraded from the level of near imbalance and barely coordination to the level of intermediate coordination, good coordination, and even high-quality coordination. The spatio-temporal description of ED, SS, and EE coupling coordination level not only reveals the development trend and problems of SSS in Qinghai, it also proves the feasibility of evaluating societal safety level based on the coupling coordination level of sustainable social structure system.
关键词：sustainable societal safety; economic development; social stability; ecological environment; coupling coordination model; Qinghai Province
