摘要：Water abandonment risk caused by inflow uncertainties is a major problem in cascade hydropower generation operation and water resources management. In this study, we propose a theoretical estimation method (TEM) to calculate water abandonment risk probability (WARP) utilizing sample inflow data and historical forecast errors. The method analyzes the differences in risk quantification between the head hydropower station and downstream stations, and the corresponding probability formula is provided. Then, a short-term optimal operation model of cascade hydropower stations considering the additional WARP water level constraints is constructed to dynamically control water level risk. The Dahuashui (DHS)-Geliqiao (GLQ) cascade hydropower stations in the Wujiang River Basin of China is investigated as a case study. The results show that compared with the historical scheme, the total amount of water abandonment of DHS, GLQ and DHS-GLQ in the WARP optimal scheme decreases by 11.69%, 47.69% and 28.27%, respectively, and the flood peak of GLQ is reduced by 21.6%. In conclusion, compared with the traditional control approach and actual operation processes, the proposed risk control in optimization of cascade hydropower considering WARP can improve the comprehensive utilization efficiency of cascade hydropower systems by reducing the occurrence of water abandonment and thereby increase generation profits.
