摘要：In the operation and maintenance of the South–North Water Transfer Project, monitoring and predicting the canal slope deformation quickly and efficiently is one of the urgent problems to be solved. To predict the slope deformation of the deep excavated canal section at the head of the canal. We propose a new idea of adopting the joint prediction of MT-InSAR and Fbprophet. Firstly, MT-InSAR monitoring technology was used to invert channel deformation using 88 Sentinel-1A orbit-raising image data with a time baseline from 2017 to 2019. The time-series deformation of nine monitoring points was also extracted, and it was found that the time-series curves of the cumulative deformation of the channel slope showed fluctuations. The Fbprophet algorithm was then used to train the prediction model in Python to predict the channel slope deformation over the next 365 days. Finally, the prediction results were compared with the MT-InSAR monitoring values to analyze the prediction accuracy and applicability of the Fbprophet algorithm for the slope deformation monitoring of the South–North Water Transfer Project. The results show that: the deformation rate of the slope of the deep excavation section is in the range of 10 mm/a to 25 mm/a, the maximum accumulated deformation is about 60 mm, and the slope of the excavation canal shows a lifting phenomenon; among the nine monitoring points, the minimum and maximum predicted values of deformation using the machine learning prediction model trained in this paper were 56 mm and 73 mm, respectively; comparing the predicted and monitored values, their correlation coefficients were 0.998 at the highest and 0.988 at the lowest, and the minimum and maximum values of RMSE (RootMean Square Error) were 0.72 mm and 2.87 mm, respectively. It shows that the prediction model trained by the Fbprophet algorithm in this paper applies to the prediction of slope deformation in the deep excavation section, and our prediction results can provide a data reference for disaster prevention and the sustainable development of the South–North Water Transfer Project.
关键词：South–North Water Transfer Project; slope deformation; MT-InSAR; Fbprophet; time-series prediction
