摘要：As the Framework Act on Sustainable Infrastructure Management has recently been enacted in Korea, it has become mandatory to establish a medium-and long-term plan for managing social infrastructure and evaluating the feasibility of maintenance projects. However, road agencies are experiencing problems due to a lack of deterioration models which are essential to conducting a life cycle cost analysis. Thus, this study developed deterioration models for bridge pavements as the first step to secure the power of execution of the Infrastructure Management Act. The deterioration model subdivided pavement materials into asphalt, conventional concrete, and latex-modified concrete. This study analyzed the data on diagnosis for the last 12 years in Korea by applying the Bayesian Markov Hazard Model. The average life expectancy by pavement type was analyzed as follows: 12.8 years for asphalt pavement; 23.4 years for concrete pavement; and 9.8 years for latex-modified concrete pavement. For the probabilistic life cycle cost analysis and risk management, probability distributions of life expectancy, effective range by confidence level, and Markov transition probability were presented. This study lays a foundation for deterministic and probabilistic life cycle cost analysis of bridge pavement. Future studies need to develop deterioration models standardized for all components of bridges and all types of social infrastructure.
关键词：asset management; bridge; pavement; life cycle cost analysis; life expectancy; deterioration model; Markov chain; pavement material
