摘要：The European Union (EU) 2020 Biodiversity strategy aims at guaranteeing and enhancingthe future supply of ecosystem services (‘ES’) in the member states. In an ex-anteassessment of plausible environmental policies, we projected the supply of 10 ESunder 3 policy alternatives of land-use change (‘Nature Protection’, ‘Payment for carbonsequestration’ and ‘Payment for recreational services’) in the 27 EU member states(EU27). We assessed changes in supply of individual services across administrativeunits (at the NUTS-2 and EU27 levels) as well as bundles (at the EU27 level) between2010 and 2040. Results show that the policy options only marginally affected ES bundlesbut several services could change substantially at the EU27 level (e.g. energy contentfrom agricultural production and pollination). Wood supply, carbon sequestration andmoderation of wind disturbance responded very differently across policy alternatives. Atthe NUTS-2 level, biocontrol of pests, carbon sequestration, moderation of wind disturbance and wood supply showed the most contrasted deviation from their regionalsupply in 2010. Finally, while payments for carbon sequestration benefited carbonsequestration as expected, specific payments for recreation services failed to promotethem. Our analyses suggest that protecting nature appeared to be the best way offostering ES supply within Europe.
