摘要：As in other ecosystems, provision of ecosystem services from forests is uncertain because ofstochastic weather conditions. In general, society is risk-averse, which means that factorsincreasing or decreasing the uncertainty in ecosystem services add a source of cost or valueto society, measurement of which is lacking in the literature. This article suggests a methodfor calculating the impact of site-specific ecological conditions in Swedish forests on theeconomic value of uncertain ecosystem services in terms of timber and carbon sequestration.Applying econometric tools from economics and finance to time-series forest data in Swedenreveals that a site quality indicator adds positively to forest growth rate and decreasesuncertainty in forest productivity and associated provision of ecosystem services. The importance of site quality is demonstrated by showing that a marginal increase in site quality canraise the economic value of timber and carbon sequestration by 9% and that neglectinguncertainty can underestimate the value of the contribution by 12%. These findings indicatethat management practices improving site quality have the potential of raising the totaleconomic value of forest ecosystem and stabilizing its volatility.
