摘要：Scenario analysis is a useful technique to inform landscape planning of social-ecologicalsystems by modelling future trends in ecosystem service supply and distribution. This isespecially critical in floodplain agroecosystems of rural areas, which are at risk of losingriparian forest corridors due to increasing land use conversion for agricultural productionand other ecosystem services due to rural abandonment. However, few studies investigatingthe effects of land management combine social and ecological modelling in scenario analyses. We estimated the supply of 16 ecosystem services under five alternative scenarios alongtwo gradients: agricultural intensification of the floodplain and active ecological restoration ofthe riparian forest. We used redundancy analyses to detect ecosystem service bundles andinterviews to identify societal gains and losses associated with each management scenario.Our results show how land management influences both the supply and distribution ofecosystem services. Scenarios promoting active ecological restoration supplied more servicesand benefited a larger range of societal sectors than scenarios focused on provisioningservices. We also found two consistent bundles across scenarios, one related to less intensivefood supply and another one related to outdoor activities. Interestingly, additional serviceswere included in these bundles in the different scenarios, reflecting land management effects.Landscape scale management promoting both the conservation of ecosystem functioningand the sustainable use of provisioning services could supply a more balanced set ofecosystem services and benefit a larger number of societal sectors, contributing to moreequitable and sustainable futures in rural areas.
关键词：Agricultural system;multifunctional landscape;ecosystem management;land use planning;floodplain trajectories;pluralvaluation
