首页    期刊浏览 2024年11月30日 星期六
登录注册

文章基本信息

  • 标题:After-crisis Scenarios for the European Regions
  • 作者:Roberto CAMAGNI ; Roberta CAPELLO
  • 期刊名称:地域学研究
  • 印刷版ISSN:0287-6256
  • 电子版ISSN:1880-6465
  • 出版年度:2012
  • 卷号:42
  • 期号:1
  • 页码:3-24
  • DOI:10.2457/srs.42.3
  • 出版社:The Japan Section of the Regional Science Association International
  • 摘要:

    The main goal of this paper is to build after-the-crisis scenarios for European regions. The methodology applied to develop these scenarios starts from general reflections on what the crisis has brought (and will bring) about, and on the way these changes are perceived and even anticipated by policy makers. These qualitative reflections are used as the basis for what may be called “quantitative foresights” , built on the discontinuities that will emerge after the crisis. What is called a “ reference scenario ” is built under the assumption that there will be a perception that structural changes will happen, that an extrapolation of past trends has no meaning at all, but that policies will not act in an effective way. This scenario will be compared to a second one, called the pro-active scenario , in which changes will be perceived and even anticipated; and to the re-active or defensive one, based on the assumptions that changes are not fully perceived by economic actors. The structural changes brought about by the crisis are translated into quantitative assumptions for a macro econometric regional growth model created by the authors, called MASST, an acronym recalling its structural features: a macroeconomic, social, sectoral, territorial model, a methodology as neutral as possible which leaves to the model to produce the tendencies and behavioural paths of regional GDP up to 2025. Policy implications are highlighted at the end of the paper. JEL Classification: R10

  • 关键词:World Crisis; Regional Scenarios; Structural Breaks in the Economies
Loading...
联系我们|关于我们|网站声明
国家哲学社会科学文献中心版权所有