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  • 标题:艤装設計における不確定性のある問題の解析手法について その2 船舶火災の拡大条件
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:福地 信義 ; 篠田 岳思
  • 期刊名称:日本造船学会論文集
  • 印刷版ISSN:0514-8499
  • 电子版ISSN:1884-2070
  • 出版年度:1990
  • 卷号:1990
  • 期号:168
  • 页码:655-664
  • DOI:10.2534/jjasnaoe1968.1990.168_655
  • 出版社:The Japan Society of Naval Architects and Ocean Engineers
  • 摘要:

    The various factors and conditions for the design of ship equipments contain several indeterminable elements, which could often introduce a certain amount of fuzziness in the designed values. In the previous part of this paper, a method of solution to such problems was attempted by evolving a Cartesian Product Model using the Fuzzy theory. This part investigates the prediction methods for the amount of fuzziness that could be introduced by the indeterminancy of the governing factors in a strongly parameter dependent phenomenon, based upon a combination of mathematical modelling and fuzzy relationships, using a fuzzy determination model. As a practical example, the phenomenon of the incidence of ship fires and the conditions for its outburst and spread are investigated by dividing it into the flashover of the burning cell and its spread into the adjacent cells. The flashover threshold curve for the outburst of fire in a cell is determined first, and the fuzziness involved in the chances of a flashover is predicted in the threshold curve, using the fuzzy relationships. The conditions under which the fire would spread into the adjacent cells, and the range of thicknesses for the noninflammable intercell wall materials necessary to prevent that danger, are determined then by introducing the indeterminable values into the fuzzy determination model.

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