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  • 标题:ヒューマン・エラーを考慮した機能システムの信頼性評価 (その2) 事象の不可測性と事故対策の信頼性
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:篠田 岳思 ; 福地 信義
  • 期刊名称:日本造船学会論文集
  • 印刷版ISSN:0514-8499
  • 电子版ISSN:1884-2070
  • 出版年度:1995
  • 卷号:1995
  • 期号:178
  • 页码:629-637
  • DOI:10.2534/jjasnaoe1968.1995.178_629
  • 出版社:The Japan Society of Naval Architects and Ocean Engineers
  • 摘要:

    The Event Tree Analysis (ETA) method is used to evaluate the reliability of the functional designs of marine systems. Generally, the ETA estimates the incidence probability of an accident by considering the probability of occurence of each subevent leading to the accident. The exact estimation of subevents related to human errors is difficult since they include several unmeasurable factors, and the results could be misleading. In the first part, we presented a method for the estimation of accident incidence probability using a linguistic function to evaluate the fuzziness of the event probability value. Now, this paper presents a method of reliability analysis considering the measurability of some subevents, like a human error. This process of reliability estimation is based on the degree of belief of the incident event and an additional rule based on a fuzzy measure. As a practical example, the reliability analysis of the fire protection and extinguishing systems during the incidence condition of a ship fire spread are investigated using the proposed method.

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