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  • 标题:仮説検証過程における確信度更新と検証系列:情報獲得モデルによる検討
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:田村 昌彦 ; 服部 雅史 ; 三輪 和久
  • 期刊名称:認知科学
  • 印刷版ISSN:1341-7924
  • 电子版ISSN:1881-5995
  • 出版年度:2010
  • 卷号:17
  • 期号:1
  • 页码:180-195
  • DOI:10.11225/jcss.17.180
  • 出版社:Japanese Cognitive Science Society
  • 摘要:

    In this paper, we propose a new model of human hypothesis testing process. The model predicts a sequence of testing when people continuously receive positive results that confirm the hypothesis. First we constructed a Bayesian model which addresses 5 situations to be tested based on information theory. In a simulation, we identified 5 qualitative characteristics of the model's behavior, some of which were corroborated in a subsequent experiment. The results of the experiment, however, also suggested that the participants did not correctly estimate the size of the hypothesis. By reconstructing the model, we simplified the model to explain participants' data. As a consequence, we found that a much simpler model can sufficiently explain the data. In conclusion, it was suggested that people are roughly Bayesian but they use heuristic strategies in hypothesis testing.

  • 关键词:Wasonの2-4-6課題; 期待獲得情報量; 正事例検証方略; ベイズ・モデル
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