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  • 标题:Flexible Bayesian analysis of first price auctions using a simulated likelihood
  • 作者:Kim, Dong‐Hyuk
  • 期刊名称:Quantitative Economics
  • 电子版ISSN:1759-7331
  • 出版年度:2015
  • 卷号:6
  • 期号:2
  • 页码:429-461
  • DOI:10.3982/QE257
  • 语种:English
  • 出版社:John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
  • 摘要:

    I propose a Bayesian method to analyze bid data from first-price auctions under private value paradigms. I use a series representation to specify the valuation density so that bidding monotonicity is always satisfied, and I impose density affiliation by the nonparametric technique of Beresteanu (2007). This flexible method is, therefore, fully compatible with the underlying economic theory. To handle such a rich specification, I use a simulated likelihood, yet obtain a correct posterior by regarding the draws used for simulation as a latent variable to be augmented in the Bayesian framework; see Flury and Shephard, 2011. I provide a step-by-step guide of the method, report its performance from various perspectives, and compare the method with the existing one for a range of data generating processes and sample sizes. Finally, I analyze a bid sample for drilling rights in the outer continental shelf that has been widely studied and propose a reserve price that is decision theoretically optimal under parameter uncertainty.

  • 关键词:First price sealed bid auctions ; affiliated private values ; revenue maximizing reserve price ; Bayesian analysis ; method of series ; simulated likelihood ; shape restriction ; C11 ; C13 ; C15 ; C44 ; D44 ; L38
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