Abstract

The multimodel ensemble of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 ( CMIP5 ) synthesizes the latest research in global climate modeling. The freshwater system on land, particularly runoff, has so far been of relatively low priority in global climate models, despite the societal and ecosystem importance of freshwater changes, and the science and policy needs for such model output on drainage basin scales. Here we investigate the implications of CMIP5 multimodel ensemble output data for the freshwater system across a set of drainage basins in the Northern Hemisphere. Results of individual models vary widely, with even ensemble mean results differing greatly from observations and implying unrealistic long‐term systematic changes in water storage and level within entire basins. The CMIP5 projections of basin‐scale freshwater fluxes differ considerably more from observations and among models for the warm temperate study basins than for the Arctic and cold temperate study basins. In general, the results call for concerted research efforts and model developments for improving the understanding and modeling of the freshwater system and its change drivers. Specifically, more attention to basin‐scale water flux analyses should be a priority for climate model development, and an important focus for relevant model‐based advice for adaptation to climate change.

Key Points

Freshwater fluxes better represented for cold than for warm temperate regions Unrealistic long‐term average water balances implied by climate model output Attention to freshwater fluxes needed to inform climate model use in adaptation