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  • 标题:Multicriteria Analysis of Neural Network Forecasting Models: An Application to German Regional Labour Markets
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Roberto PATUELLI ; Simonetta LONGHI ; Aura REGGIANI
  • 期刊名称:地域学研究
  • 印刷版ISSN:0287-6256
  • 电子版ISSN:1880-6465
  • 出版年度:2002
  • 卷号:33
  • 期号:3
  • 页码:205-229
  • DOI:10.2457/srs.33.3_205
  • 出版社:The Japan Section of the Regional Science Association International
  • 摘要:

    This paper develops a flexible multi-dimensional assessment method for the comparison of different statistical-econometric techniques based on learning mechanisms with a view to analysing and forecasting regional labour markets. The aim of this paper is twofold. A first major objective is to explore the use of a standard choice tool, namely Multicriteria Analysis (MCA), in order to cope with the intrinsic methodological uncertainty on the choice of a suitable statistical-econometric learning technique for regional labour market analysis. MCA is applied here to support choices on the performance of various models -based on classes of Neural Network (NN) techniques-that serve to generate employment forecasts in West Germany at a regional/district level. A second objective of the paper is to analyse the methodological potential of a blend of approaches (NN-MCA) in order to extend the analysis framework to other economic research domains, where formal models are not available, but where a variety of statistical data is present. The paper offers a basis for a more balanced judgement of the performance of rival statistical tests.

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