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  • 标题:Mathematical Modelling, Simulation, and Optimal Control of the 2014 Ebola Outbreak in West Africa
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Amira Rachah ; Delfim F. M. Torres
  • 期刊名称:Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society
  • 印刷版ISSN:1026-0226
  • 电子版ISSN:1607-887X
  • 出版年度:2015
  • 卷号:2015
  • DOI:10.1155/2015/842792
  • 出版社:Hindawi Publishing Corporation
  • 摘要:The Ebola virus is currently one of the most virulent pathogens for humans. The latest major outbreak occurred in Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia in 2014. With the aim of understanding the spread of infection in the affected countries, it is crucial to modelize the virus and simulate it. In this paper, we begin by studying a simple mathematical model that describes the 2014 Ebola outbreak in Liberia. Then, we use numerical simulations and available data provided by the World Health Organization to validate the obtained mathematical model. Moreover, we develop a new mathematical model including vaccination of individuals. We discuss different cases of vaccination in order to predict the effect of vaccination on the infected individuals over time. Finally, we apply optimal control to study the impact of vaccination on the spread of the Ebola virus. The optimal control problem is solved numerically by using a direct multiple shooting method.
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