摘要：To identify network bottlenecks of urban expressway effectively is a foundational work for improving network traffic condition and preventing traffic congestion. This study proposes a methodology to estimate the impact of traffic incident on urban expressway on the basis of modified cell transmission model. The metastable state was taken into account in the proposed method to reflect the actual operating state of traffic flow on urban expressway as much as possible. Regarding the location of traffic incident, the method of cell restructuring settings was discussed. We then proceed to introduce a new concept of the effected length in a given time period as the evaluation indicator to directly depict the influence of traffic incident. The proposed method was tested on a 6516-meter urban expressway section of west second ring road in Beijing. The simulation results indicated that the proposed methodology performs well to predict the impact of traffic incident on urban expressway.
