摘要：Reservoir-induced seismicity is a very important issuein the study of geological analysis and eco-environmentalimpact assessment in hydraulic and hydro-power engineering.On the other hand, reservoir-induced seismicity is a necessaryconsideration in the feasibility study of hydropower project.Due to the complexity in the process of reservoir-inducedearthquake and the uncertainty of the influencing factor, therisk assessment can be viewed as a multiple-attribute decisionprocess. Therefore, this paper aims to provide a forecastingapproach towards reservoir induced seismicity, in which twophase procedures are proposed. The first stage utilizes analytichierarchy process (AHP) to obtain the weights of influencingfactors, in the second stage fuzzy comprehensive evaluation(FCE) is applied to determine the dangerous class which areservoir belongs to. This study establishes a hierarchicalmodel in reservoir-induced seismicity risk assessment, realizesthe transformation from qualitative analysis to quantitativeanalysis. In addition, a case study is also presented to make thisapplication more understandable. It shows that the multi-levelfuzzy comprehensive evaluation is very effective in thereservoir induced seismicity risk assessment.
关键词：reservoir induced seismicity;analytic hierarchy process (AHP);fuzzy comprehensive evaluation;risk assessment;pairwise comparison
