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  • 标题:Nested identification of subjective probabilities
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Jacques H. Dreze
  • 期刊名称:SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association
  • 印刷版ISSN:1869-4187
  • 电子版ISSN:1869-4195
  • 出版年度:2012
  • 卷号:3
  • 期号:1-2
  • 页码:259-271
  • DOI:10.1007/s13209-011-0049-4
  • 出版社:Springer Berlin / Heidelberg
  • 摘要:The theory of games against nature relies on complete preferences among all conceivable acts (case 1). Aumann and Drèze (Am Econ J Microecon 1(1):1–16, 2009 ) consider situations where preferences are defined only for a given set of acts (case 2). We extend these results to situations where (i) only the set of optimal elements from a given set of acts is known (case 3); (ii) only a single optimal act is known (case 4). To these four cases correspond four nested sets of admissible subjective probabilities. Cases 3 and 4 define the extent to which probabilities must be specified to solve a decision problem.
  • 关键词:Games; Decisions; Probability; Elicitation
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