期刊名称：American Journal of Economics and Business Administration
印刷版ISSN：1945-5488
电子版ISSN：1945-5496
卷号：7
期号：2
页码：77-93
DOI：10.3844/ajebasp.2015.77.93
出版社：Science Publications
摘要：Thestudy examined the trend in agricultural diversification index from 1960 to2014 in Nigeria. It also determined the influence of some macroeconomicvariables on the estimated index. Augmented Dickey-Fuller-GLS unit root testshowed that all series were integrated of order one. The long-run and short-runelasticity of the agricultural diversification index with respect to thespecified macro-economic variables were determined using the techniques ofco-integration and error correction models. The trend analysis revealed that,the country has witnessed appreciable level of agricultural diversificationwith 0.3%, 0.5% and 2.3% annual exponential growth rate in entropydiversification index, Herfindhal diversification index and Ogive diversificationindex respectively. The estimation of the error correction model supported thelong run stability of agricultural diversification index in Nigeria. Theempirical results revealed that, in the long run inflation, viablemanufacturing sector, credit to agricultural sector, external reserves, percapita income, unemployment and energy consumption are positive drivers ofagricultural diversification; whereas, crude oil prices, lending capacity ofcommercial Bank, foreign direct investment in agricultural sector and non-oilimport are long run negative drivers of agricultural diversification inNigeria. However, in the short run, inflation, external reserves and non-oilimports stimulated agricultural diversification; while energy consumption andmanufacturing capability retard agricultural diversification in the country. Aten-year forecast was made on the estimated diversification indices and theresult showed a progressive growth. The empirical results were furthersubstantiated by the variance decomposition and impulse response analysis ofthe dependent variable with respect to changes in the explanatory variables.Results obtained were in line with the previous results. It is recommendedthat, the Nigeria government should re-aligned its macroeconomic policies toachieve stability in inflation rate, external reserves, industrial production,electricity consumption, agricultural credit institution if sustainableagricultural diversification is to be achieved in the long run.
