期刊名称：International Journal of Advanced Computer Science and Applications(IJACSA)
印刷版ISSN：2158-107X
电子版ISSN：2156-5570
出版年度：2014
卷号：5
期号：4
DOI：10.14569/IJACSA.2014.050429
出版社：Science and Information Society (SAI)
摘要：Pilgrimage has received a great attention by the government of Saudi Arabia. Of special interest is the yearly series of the Number of Pilgrims coming from Outside the kingdom (NPO) since it is one of the most important indicators in determining the planning mechanism for future hajj seasons. This study approaches the problems of identification, estimation, diagnostic checking and forecasting of the NPO series using Bayesian and Box - Jenkins approaches. The accuracy of Bayesian and Box- Jenkins techniques have been checked for forecasting the future observations and the results were very satisfactory. Moreover, it has been shown that Bayesian technique gives more accurate results than Box-Jenkins technique.
关键词：thesai; IJACSA; thesai.org; journal; IJACSA papers; autoregressive processes; identification; estimation; diagnostic checking; forecasting; Jeffreys' prior; and posterior probability mass function
