期刊名称：International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER)
印刷版ISSN：2311-3871
电子版ISSN：2310-5232
出版年度：2013
卷号：1
期号：2
页码：15-23
出版社：The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO)
摘要：This is pioneer study conducted in Malaysia combining seasonal unit root and multivariate approach. Malaysia is a favorite destination for international tourist and the major tourism demand for Malaysia is from Indonesia, Singapore and Thailand. These three countries is neighboring country for Malaysia and tourists are more flexible to visit Malaysia using flights, rails and road transportations. This study attempts to investigate the seasonal and structural break analysis of tourist arrivals to Malaysia using seasonal unit, structural break analysis and multivariate co-integration analysis. This study uses monthly time series data from 1995 (January) until 2010 (December) with monthly seasonal dummies. The finding of this study shows that, there is no seasonal effect of tourism demand from Singapore, Thailand and Indonesia to Malaysia. In term of multivariate analysis, we found that real effective exchange rate (REER) and Malaysia’s consumer price index (CPI) has causal relation with Singapore, Thailand and Indonesia tourist arrival for the entire period this study. Overall, this study has proven that ‘Malaysia is truly Asia’ in term of receiving ASEAN tourist without any seasonal effects although had faced several unstable situations such as Asian financial crises and SARS pandemic.This paper opens up new insights for Malaysia to attract tourism in up-coming years.
关键词：Multivariate Analysis; Seasonal Unit Root; Tourism Demand
