摘要：Heihe River Basin is the second largest inland river basin in China, where water supply service in the upper reach has greater influence on the sustainable development of middle and lower reaches. This study analyzed the influence of land use/land cover change (LUCC) on the water supply service in the upper reach by carrying out scenario simulation. Firstly, we analyzed the LUCC and climate change in the upper reach during 1990–2005; then the water supply service, which was represented by the annual water yield, was estimated with the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model. Thereafter three scenarios (precipitation change and LUCC change combined, LUCC change only, and precipitation change only) were established to analyze the impacts of LUCC and precipitation change on the water yield. The results show that the LUCC exerted great influence on water yield, while the impact of precipitation change is even more significant than that of LUCC. Although there are still some uncertainties, the results of this study can still provide valuable reference information for ecological conservation and water resource management in the upper reach of the Heihe River Basin.
关键词：LUCC; water supply service; water yield; InVEST model; upper reach of Heihe River Basin
