摘要：The space-time version of the epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model is based on the empirical laws for aftershocks, and constructed with a certain space-time function for earthquake clustering.For more accurate seismic prediction, we modify it to deal with not only anisotropic clustering but also regionally distinct characteristics of seismicity.The former needs a quasi-real-time cluster analysis that identifies the aftershock centroids and correlation coefficient of a cluster distribution.The latter needs the space-time ETAS model with location dependent parameters.Together with the Gutenberg-Richter’s magnitude-frequency law with location-dependent b -values, the elaborated model is applied for short-term, intermediate-term and long-term forecasting of baseline seismic activity. Key words Anisotropic clusters Bayesian method b-values, Delaunay tessellation location dependent parameters probability forecasting.
