摘要：What factors determine the diffusion of social policies? This article exam - ines the launching of conditional cash transfer programs by Brazilian munici - palities to explore this problem. The literature of political science asserts that such programs have been widely implemented because they correspond to an al - ternative policy strategy adopted by governments facing opposition to implement universal public policies. So, political competition would be at the root of CCT launching. This article presents an alternative explanation. From 1995 to 2001, local governments created or emulated the Bolsa Escola Program (BEP) in all regions of the country. Such a path continued after the lauching of the national Bolsa Escola by the federal government. Why did some local governments decide to adopt the national BEP and others did not? To answer these questions, the research tests the influence of structural, internal and external variables on the dissemination of CCT programs. Two main hypotheses are tested. The first as - serts that local political competition is positive for policy diffusion. The second hypothesis claims that party alignment between the municipal and federal levels increases the likelihood of municipalities adopting the federal BEP. The research uses Event History Analysis to test statistically the impact of political incentives on policy diffusion among São Paulo State’s municipalities. Two types of policy diffusion are examined: horizontal and vertical. The findings confirm that polit - ical competition influences the horizontal diffusion among municipalities. Unex - pectedly, vertical diffusion does not occur because of party alignment or political competition. Rather, levels of socioeconomic development drive policy emulation.
