期刊名称：Discussion Papers in Economics / Department of Economics, University of Surrey
出版年度：2014
出版社：University of Surrey
摘要：Has the global economic crisis resulted in countries shifting their exchangerate regimes and, if so, in what way? Focusing on the relevant period of2008-12, and using the IMF’s Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements andExchange Restrictions (AREAER) classification of exchange rate regimes anddatabase, we calculate exchange rate regime transition probabilities and testtheir statistical significance. Even though there is some evidence of state dependence,in the sense that transitions are relatively infrequent, we do findthat these are significant, especially in the direction of fixity. Our testingprocedure employs the Wilson (1927) statistic, which is appropriate for drawinginference based on relatively rare events. By examining all transitions indetail, we also find further evidence that countries that shift often flip backto their previous regime
