期刊名称：International Journal on Electrical Engineering and Informatics
印刷版ISSN：2085-6830
出版年度：2015
卷号：7
期号：2
DOI：10.15676/ijeei.2015.7.2.3
出版社：School of Electrical Engineering and Informatics
摘要：Macro Demand Spatial Approach (MDSA) is an approach introduced in longtime electricity demand forecasting considering location. It will be used at transmissionplanning and policy decision on electricity infrastructure development in a region. In themodel, MDSA combined with qualitative approach and quantitative approach as mixedmethod. QA used to determine main development area and supporting area inregion.This method is used to prove the hypothesis that the observed transmissionservice area are not homogeneous.Main development area is an area with industrialdomination as a driver of economic growth. Whilst, supporting area is an area withresidential domination that supporting economic growth at main developmentarea.Hence, the electricity demand driver variables are different for type of electricityconsumer at different spatial characteristics. The variables have no significant effect canbe reduced by using PCA. The results of PCA should be validated with the results ofQA. Generated models formed from the variables generated by PCA. The generatedmodels tested to assess whether it fit with the actual data. Range of interval confidencelevel used as fit criteria. At the case study, generated model for main development areasand supporting area in Southern Sumatra Regionas a part of Sumatra System is still inthe range of confidence level. Thus, MDSA can be proposed as alternative approach ondemand forecastingat transmission planning that considering location.
关键词：Spatial electricity demand forecasting; macro demand spatial approach;principal component analysis; main development area; transmission planning
