出版社：Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung
摘要：Recently, terms such as ‘industry 4.0’ (Industrie 4.0) or ‘working environment 4.0’ (Arbeitswelt 4.0) play a dominant role in several public debates. It is clear that the ongoing digitalisation may have large effects on the future working environment. To consider the development of the future working environment, we first have to clarify the current status of Germany. How much are occupations substitutable because tasks performed by employees today will be substituted by computers in the near future? In this paper, we determine for single occupations the share of tasks that could be currently substituted by computers. We calculate the substitution potentials of occupations based on German occupational data from the expert data base BERUFENET of the Federal Employment Agency. Thus, we can directly consider the specific characteristics of the German labour market. Our results show that 15 per cent of employees subject to social insurance contributions have a high substitution potential in the year 2013 in Germany, i.e. they are employed in an occupation in which more than 70 per cent of the tasks could already be substituted by computers. We present our results for requirement levels, occupational segments and occupational segments in combination with the requirement level of the German Clas sification of Occupations 2010. Furthermore, we provide results in the appendix for the occupational main groups in combination with the requirement level of the German Classification of Occupations 2010 and the BIBB fields of occupations.
