摘要：There is widespread interest in the impacts of climate change on agriculture in
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and on the most effective investments to assist adaptation to
these changes, yet the scientific basis for estimating production risks and prioritizing
investments has been quite limited. Here we show that by combining historical crop
production and weather data into a panel analysis, a robust model of yield response to
climate change emerges for several key African crops. By mid-century, the mean estimates
of aggregate production changes in SSA under our preferred model specification are − 22, − 17, − 17, − 18, and − 8% for maize, sorghum, millet, groundnut, and cassava, respectively. In all cases except
cassava, there is a 95% probability that damages exceed 7%, and a 5% probability that
they exceed 27%. Moreover, countries with the highest average yields have the largest
projected yield losses, suggesting that well-fertilized modern seed varieties are more
susceptible to heat related losses.
