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  • 标题:Using Survey Data of Inflation Expectations in the Estimation of Learning and Rational Expectations Models
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Arturo Ormeño ; Krisztina Molnár
  • 期刊名称:Discussion Papers / Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration
  • 印刷版ISSN:0804-6824
  • 出版年度:2014
  • 卷号:2014
  • 出版社:Bergen
  • 摘要:Does survey data contain useful information for estimating macroeconomicmodels? We address this question by using survey data of inationexpectations to estimate the New Keynesian model by Smets and Wouters(2007) and compare its performance under rational expectations and adaptivelearning. The survey information serves as an additional moment restrictionand helps us to determine the learning agents' forecasting modelfor ination. Adaptive learning fares similarly to rational expectations in tting macro data, but clearly outperforms rational expectations in ttingmacro and survey data simultaneously. In other words survey data containsadditional information that is not present in the macro data alone.
  • 关键词:survey data; learning; rational expectations; in;ation expectations;Bayesian econometrics
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