期刊名称：Euro Area Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Statistics
印刷版ISSN：1830-3420
电子版ISSN：1830-3439
出版年度：2014
出版社：European Central Bank
摘要：The model presented here is an estimated medium-scale model for the United States (US) economy developedto forecast and analyse policy issues for the US. The model is speci ed to track the deviation of the medium-run developments from the balanced-growth-path via an estimated CES production function for the privatesector, where factor augmenting technical progress is not constrained to evolve at a constant rate. Theshort-run deviations from the medium run are estimated based on three optimising private sector decisionmaking units: rms, trade unions and households. We assume agents optimise under limited-informationmodel-consistent learning, where each agent knows the parameters related to his/her optimization problem.Under this learning approach the e¤ect of a monetary policy shock on output and ination is more mutedbut persistent than under rational expectations, but both speci cations are broadly comparable to other USmacro models. Using the learning version, we nd stronger expansionary e¤ects of an increase in governmentexpenditure during periods of downturns compared to booms.
