期刊名称：Euro Area Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Statistics
印刷版ISSN：1830-3420
电子版ISSN：1830-3439
出版年度：2014
出版社：European Central Bank
摘要：In this paper, we develop financial conditions indices (FCIs) for 3 industrialized (US, Japan,UK) and 5 emerging (China, Brazil, Russia, India, Turkey) economies. The FCIs are formedas the principal component of a range of financial series for each country and are constructedto account for fluctuations in the business cycle. We show that these FCIs can help predictgrowth developments and thereby provide a potential leading indicator for the externalenvironment of the Euro area. While we draw upon established methodologicalconsiderations in the literature, our main contribution lies in providing FCIs which areavailable for a broad set of countries, including many emerging economies, and whosemovements can intuitively be interpreted. This latter fact allows us to track developments inthe 8 investigated financial markets over the last decade
关键词：Financial Conditions Index; FCI; Principal Component Analysis; Forecasting
