期刊名称：Euro Area Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Statistics
印刷版ISSN：1830-3420
电子版ISSN：1830-3439
出版年度：2014
出版社：European Central Bank
摘要：macroeconomic governance framework was overhauled in 2011. Against this background, thispaper analyses whether the broadened surveillance of fiscal and macroeconomic indicators underthe strengthened governance framework would have facilitated the identification of emergingimbalances, had it been in place before the crisis. The findings suggest that the strengthenedgovernance framework would have given earlier signals about emerging excessive fiscal andmacroeconomic imbalances. Euro area countries thus would have been obliged to take preventiveand corrective action at an earlier stage, provided that the stricter rules had been effectivelyimplemented. At the same time, the paper concludes that the increased reliance of the EU fiscalgovernance framework on unobservable magnitudes such as the structural budget balance, whichare difficult to measure in real time, will continue to impede the timely identification of underlyingfiscal imbalances. It is suggested that the new macroeconomic imbalance procedure could havegiven earlier indications about the emergence of excessive macroeconomic imbalances, whichin turn posed risks for fiscal sustainability. Looking forward, these preliminary findings suggestpossible synergies between the, until now largely unrelated, fiscal and macroeconomic governanceframeworks
