期刊名称：Euro Area Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Statistics
印刷版ISSN：1830-3420
电子版ISSN：1830-3439
出版年度：2014
出版社：European Central Bank
摘要：This paper argues that, under certain conditions, firms consider export activity as a substitute ofserving domestic demand. Our econometric model for six euro area countries suggests domesticdemand pressure and capacity constraint restrictions as additional variables of a properly specifiedexport equation. As an innovation to the literature, we assess the empirical significance through thelogistic and the exponential variant of the non-linear smooth transition regression model. We findthat domestic demand developments are relevant for the short-run dynamics of exports in particularduring more extreme stages of the business cycle. A strong substitutive relationship betweendomestic and foreign sales can most clearly be found for Spain, Portugal and Italy providing evidenceof the importance of sunk costs and hysteresis in international trade.
