期刊名称：Euro Area Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Statistics
印刷版ISSN：1830-3420
电子版ISSN：1830-3439
出版年度：2014
出版社：European Central Bank
摘要：We assess the effects on trade balance of a temporary fiscal devaluation enactedby Spain or Portugal by simulating EAGLE, a large-scale multi-country dynamicgeneral equilibrium model of the euro area. Social contributions paid by firms arereduced by 1 percent of GDP for four years and are financed by increasing con-sumption tax. Our main results are the following. First, the Spanish trade balanceimproves by 0.5 percent of GDP, the (before-consumption tax) real exchange ratedepreciates by 0.7 percent and the terms of trade deteriorate by 1 percent. Sec-ond, similar results are obtained in the case of Portugal. Third, the trade balanceimproves when the fiscal devaluation is enacted also in the rest of the euro area,albeit to a lower extent than in the case of unilateral (country-specific) implementa-tion. Fourth, quantitative results crucially depend on the degree of substitutabilitybetween domestic and imported tradables.
关键词：fiscal devaluation; trade deficit; dynamic general equilibrium modeling.
