期刊名称：Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - Regional Economist
出版年度：2015
出版社：Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
摘要：n economy moves between extended periods of positive output growth (expan- sions) and shorter periods of negative growth (recessions). Shifting between these phases is typically referred to as the business cycle. This cycle is a promi- nent feature in economies—both advanced and developing—and can be corre- lated across countries. The correlation of business cycles implies that groups of countries are in the same phase for stretches of time. An example of this can be seen in the figure, which shows the annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates in the United States, Canada and Mexico from 1981 through 2014. Notice that U.S. and Canadian data moved similarly over the past 30 or so years. In the past decade, the Mexican economy also fell into sync: The correlation between U.S. and Mexico increased by over 100 percent
