期刊名称：International Journal of Security and Its Applications
印刷版ISSN：1738-9976
出版年度：2015
卷号：9
期号：8
页码：137-152
DOI：10.14257/ijsia.2015.9.8.11
出版社：SERSC
摘要：Current probabilistic power flow calculation methods mostly consider the uncertainties of loads and the random failures of generators without thinking about the changing of the grids structure. Hence, this paper proposes a new probabilistic power flow calculation method comprehensively considering the influences of the uncertainties of wind farms, loads, generators, and grids structure on power flow calculation. The linear relationships are deduced between the nodes injection power and the branch active power as the circuits being at failures, and the cumulative probability distribution of each branches power flow is calculated by using semi-invariant and Gram-Charlier series expansion, and such that the complicated convolution operation is avoided. Combining compensation method and the conditional probability theory to deal with network structure changes of random factors, the paper establishes a probability flow calculation model comprehensively considering diverse factors such as random outputting power of the wind farms, random changes of the loads, and random failures of the generators, and the random variation of the grid structures and so on, the probability distribution function and probability density function of each branch can be quickly obtained by the model. Through the analysis on IEEE 14-node system, the uncertainty of grid structure has a remarkable effect on the probability distribution of the quantity to be solved. Hence, applying the proposed method can provide planners with more accurate and comprehensive information.
关键词：Probabilistic power flow; semi-invariant; Gram-Charlier series; wind farm
