期刊名称：Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers (früher: Bank of Finland Discussion Papers)
印刷版ISSN：0785-3572
电子版ISSN：1456-6184
出版年度：2013
卷号：2013
出版社：Suomen Pankki = Bank of Finland
摘要：How do cyclical scal stabilisation policies a¤ect welfare and government bond risk premia? Using a new Keynesian model we nd that the e¤ects of scal policy rules on the bond premium and welfare crucially depend on the source of business cycle uctuations. The overall e¤ect is estimated using Bayesian methods and the mechanism is deconstructed by examining the propagation mechanism of the di¤erent shocks. We nd that the impact of scal policy cyclicality on welfare and risk premia is highly non-linear and that these e¤ects are of a policy relevant magnitude. Finally, we nd that the welfare cost of highly procyclical scal policies are very large, but also excessive scal stabilization can generate non- negligible welfare losses.
关键词：New Keynesian models; scal policy; bond risk premium; mone-;tary policy.
